2024 GDP Growth Forecast at 5.8%

The country’s economic growth may have fallen short of the government’s target last year, as severe storms late in the season dampened the usual holiday-driven boost.

According to a median forecast from 12 economists surveyed by Inquirer, the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP)—which measures the total value of goods and services produced—likely expanded by 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

If confirmed by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on January 30, this figure would reflect a stronger performance compared to the 5.2% growth recorded in the third quarter.

According to Emilio Neri Jr., lead economist at the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), the country’s economic growth in the fourth quarter may have been fueled by lower inflation, which likely stimulated consumer spending and investment activity.

Additionally, government expenditures may have received an early boost due to preparations for the upcoming May elections, Neri noted.

Furthermore, he emphasized that the upcoming GDP report could play a crucial role in shaping the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) monetary policy. The central bank began its measured easing cycle in August last year, and a significant slowdown in GDP growth—particularly if it drops below 5%—could increase the chances of an interest rate cut as early as February or April.

With the official GDP data set for release soon, analysts are closely watching for potential economic policy shifts in response to the latest figures.